Growth plan for Aura Bora, 2 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
The plan protects one number: a $15.84 target CAC against a $33 case. Aura Bora already has 147 reviews on Raspberry Vanilla and a 15% first-order offer. We turn that proof into ads, test fast, and kill losers early.
- Target CAC
- $15.84
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: $15.84 CAC on a $33 case
The number is target CAC: $15.84. It is 0.6 of a $26.40 ceiling, which comes from a $33 average order, 40% margin and one repeat order. Every test is judged against it. Spend scales only while CAC stays under that line.
Protect
Target CAC: $15.84 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $33 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $26.40. Guard line = 0.6 × $26.40 = $15.84. Across the ranges: $2.63 to $81.00.
Three moves
- Judge every ad on CAC against $15.84, not on clicks or likes.
- Kill losers early and move spend to winners in the same week.
- Release the $100,000 budget only as tests clear the guard line.
- reviews on Raspberry Vanilla, rated 4.7
- 147
- Published
- off the first online order for an email
- 15%
- Published
- free shipping threshold on the site
- $40
- Published
02 Variety
Every ad carries something only Aura Bora has
Each ad concept has to carry one thing only Aura Bora has: a flavor such as Hibiscus Passionfruit, a review count, the Bad Review Tote, or the 15% first-order offer. One variable per test, so a loser teaches us why it lost.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Real herbs, fruits, flowers | Sparkling water made from herbs, fruits & flowers | 8 |
| Zero sugar, zero calories | 0 Calories, 0 Sugar, 0 Sodium. | 4 |
| 151 reviews on Hibiscus | Based on 151 reviews | 2 |
| 15% off your first purchase | Join for 15% off your first purchase! | 2 |
| 1% back to the planet | We donate more than 1% of our sales to non-profits devoted to climate action | 1 |
| Born in a kitchen | It all started with a kitchen experiment... | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Risks live in the $33 case and the $40 shipping line
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A $33 case leaves little room if CAC drifts past the $26.40 ceiling | Med | High | Me | Pause any ad set whose CAC stays above $26.40 for three days in a row. |
| Free shipping starts over $40, but a single $33 case still pays $5.00 shipping | High | Med | Your team | Test a bundle or threshold nudge; stop if checkout drop-off rises versus week one. |
| Claims about zero calories, zero sugar, zero sodium drift from your wording | Med | High | Both | Every ad line matches the claims sheet before launch; no unapproved line goes live. |
| Event tracking is missing or unverified, so CAC would be a guess | Med | High | Your team | Purchase events match orders within a small gap before spend passes $3,000. |
| Creators post off-brief and drift from the claims sheet | Med | Med | Me | Every video is reviewed before it runs as an ad; two misses and the creator is paused. |
| Some flavors are limited-time (LTO), so a winning ad can lose its product | High | Med | Your team | Run ads on core flavors like Cactus Rose first; check limited-time stock weekly. |
| The 15% first-order offer may pull in buyers who never reorder | Med | High | Both | Repeat orders must reach the one assumed in the ceiling by the day-60 gate. |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
A $33 case sets the ceiling at $26.40
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $33 (range $5.00–$60.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $26.40 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $15.84 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $33 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $26.40. Guard line = 0.6 × $26.40 = $15.84. Across the ranges: $2.63 to $81.00.
Range across the assumptions: $3 to $81.
The $26.40 ceiling mixes a fact, the $33 case on your site, with guesses: 40% margin and one repeat order. Week one replaces both with your real margin and reorder data.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests cost $24,000 before scaling
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $16 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $16 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $16 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $16 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $16 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $16 |
Six weeks, Proposed: weeks 1 and 2 run 12 ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week. Weeks 3 and 4 run 12–20 ads, $4,000 a week. Weeks 5 and 6 run 20 ads, $5,000 a week. Total $24,000. Losers get killed each week.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
A wide flavor range keeps creative volume high
More concepts mean more chances at a winner. If 20 concepts give 2 winners and each adds $18,000 a month, 80 concepts give 8 winners and $72,000. Hit rate and spend per winner are Assumptions.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
The $100,000 budget follows what the tests prove
- Meta tests: new creator ads on core flavors
- $45,000
- 45%
- Scaling winners that clear the $15.84 guard line
- $25,000
- 25%
- Creator pay and bonuses for the first ten creators
- $20,000
- 20%
- Landing pages and tracking fixes
- $10,000
- 10%
Proposed split of the $100,000 budget; the tests take $24,000 over six weeks, and the rest moves only toward ads that hold the guard line.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 20% × $100,000 = $20,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta opens first; in-store offers wait for proof
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week 1: tests start on the $3,000 first-week budget | Paid social carries creator videos built on Aura Bora flavors and reviews |
| TikTok | After two creators' videos hold CAC under $15.84 | Short recipe videos can use your cocktail pages topped with weird water |
| When the 15% popup collects emails and ad traffic keeps growing | Email capture turns a first order into reorders, which payback needs | |
| YouTube Shorts | After week four, if one format clearly wins on Meta | Recipe and flavor-review videos keep their value longer there |
| In-store | When online CAC holds and your team wants a local test | The in-store offer covers 12oz cans and 72oz multipacks only |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
At a $30 CAC, a $33 case never pays back
Payback is the real constraint. At a $10 CAC the first order pays back with $16.40 left. At $15, payback needs repeat orders, leaving $11.40. At $30 or $35 on a $33 case, it never pays back: stop. Spend scales only where CAC is safe.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $13.20, $26.40.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 | $13.20 | $26.40 | $16.40 | First order |
| $15 | $13.20 | $26.40 | $11.40 | After repeat orders |
| $30 | $13.20 | $26.40 | −$3.60 | Never: stop |
| $35 | $13.20 | $26.40 | −$8.60 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $10: $26.40 − $10 = $16.40 left; pays back: First order; CAC $15: $26.40 − $15 = $11.40 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $30: $26.40 − $30 = −$3.60 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $35: $26.40 − $35 = −$8.60 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope covers creative and spend, not your cans or shipping
Covers
- Meta ad concepts, testing and weekly killing of losers
- Creator sourcing, briefs and review of every video
- Landing pages that carry each flavor and offer
- Reporting: daily CAC, weekly lessons, monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Building event tracking; I spec it, your team ships it
- Cans, stock, shipping and fulfilment
- Pricing, margin and the $33 case offer
- Health claims beyond your own wording
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Tracking matches orders and at least one concept sits near $15.84 CAC | Tracking still unreliable or no concept under $26.40 CAC |
| Day 30 | CAC holds at $15.84 or lower while cumulative test spend reaches $14,000 | CAC above $26.40 for two weeks running |
| Day 60 | Repeat orders reach the ceiling's assumption and creators hit ten live | Cohort data shows payback never arriving |
| Day 90 | Spend scaled toward the $100,000 budget with CAC at or under $15.84 | CAC above $26.40 after scaling; hold spend flat |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creative | 147 reviews at 4.7 on Raspberry Vanilla | A hook library built from them | 1st |
| reporting | Free shipping and 15% offer to track at checkout | Daily CAC and cohort payback view | 1st |
| creators | Cocktail recipes topped with weird water | Creator roster and briefs | 2nd |
| landing pages | Product pages for each $33.00 flavor | Pages built per creator hook and offer | 2nd |
| claims sheet | Zero calories, zero sugar, zero sodium in your description | One approved sheet for every ad line | Week 1 |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 147 reviews on Raspberry Vanilla, rated 4.7 | https://aurabora.com/products/raspberry-vanilla | Fact |
| 15% off the first online order for an email | https://aurabora.com/pages/the-sparkling-water-of-your-dreams | Fact |
| $40 free shipping threshold on the site | https://aurabora.com/ | Fact |
| Product prices $5.00–$60.00 | product prices in the site product data (18 products), read 2026-10-02 | Fact |
| $33 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $15.84 target CAC | 0.6 of the $26.40 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $26.40 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 25% / 20% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I write the claims sheet, build the hook library from the Raspberry Vanilla reviews and brief the first two creators. We confirm tracking with your team, then launch 12 ads at $250 each. First-week budget: $3,000.
